Apollo Power Plants & Electric Propulsion Systems

The Apollo Power Plant

The Apollo Power Plant market covers residential, commercial and industrial establishments in which the fuel cell size will range from 500-watts (for Chinese and third world farmers) to 250 kW for small electric utility power plants.  Several 250 kW units can be connected in series to make up megawatt units.

The Largest USA market is for residential use.  Home and apartments use from 500 to 2,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity per month, depending on whether they are supplied with natural gas or propane.  It is estimated that seventy-five percent of home in America are supplied by natural gas or propane  Therefore, our model 104-C , which can supply up to 3,090 kWh of electricity per month, might be the average size required for residential applications.  This unit, mass produced, could be sold by the Company for less than $15,000, which would include a 4.3 kilowatt Apollo™ Fuel Cell, a 7.2 kilowatt hour Lead Cobalt Battery, a DC to AC Inverter, a Microprocessor, a Natural Gas or Propane Reformer (or an Ammonia Cracker) and other miscellaneous hardware.

The Company estimates that 100 million homes in the USA could use an Apollo Power Plant to great advantage. Not only would it give them independence from the national electric grid, and dependability during storms and natural disasters, but also would give them the possibility of selling excess power back to the grid. If the average home used 1,000 kWh of electricity per month and had a Model 104-C unit installed which could produce 3,090 kWh of electricity per month, the surplus 2,000 kWh would be available for sale to the grid (probably at $0.10 per kWh, the national average price for power).

A rough calculation of the market for Apollo Power Plants is as follows:

Note that an Apollo Power Plant includes a fuel cell and a battery.

The Electric Propulsion System

The Electric Propulsion System consists of an Apollo™ Fuel Cell, a Lead Cobalt Battery, an Electric Motor, an Electronic Motor Controller and miscellaneous hardware.

The selling price for an electric propulsion system for an small car, based on large scale production, might be as follows:

Note 1. The Company estimates that its fuel cell selling price can be reduced to $188/kW in large scale production, which would reduce the fuel cell price by $3,360.

According to the U.S. General Accounting Office, the market for electric vehicles in 2003 will be 353,600 in twelve states (see details of this study below). Based on this, our projection for sales of the Electric Propulsion System only is as follows:

Projected EV Sales by U.S. General Accounting Office

According to a report by the United States General Accounting Office dated December l994 entitled "ELECTRIC VEHICLES - Likely Consequences of U.S. and Other Nations' Programs and Policies", a copy of which report is available from the Company, projected electric vehicle sales from l998 to 2003 based on projected imposed mandates for the States of California, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington, D.C. are as follows:
 

This is based on l990 new vehicle registrations of 3,536,400 (new cars and light trucks) in those states, and California Air Resources Board yearly targeted zero-emission vehicle requirements. By 2003, zero-emission vehicles must constitute 10 percent of the new car and light truck market. (California's modified law dropping mandates until 2003 could alter the projections shown above).

Whether these EVs are merely supplied by the manufacturers (as current California legislation reads) or whether EVs are actually purchased will ultimately be determined by consumers. But it is generally believed that many barriers must be overcome before EVs are a viable transportation option.

Segments of the Market.  Various market research organizations have made estimates, some of which are quoted below:

Source:    The Freedonia Group, Inc. as reported by The Battery Man,
July 1999:

"Worldwide sales of electric vehicles will increase 60 percent annually from a very low base to more than one million vehicles in 2007, resulting in a $24.2 billion industry. Most of the more than four million EV's in use at that time will be battery powered cars and light trucks, although a growing number of buses, sanitation trucks and other vehicles will also be in evidence. Alternative EV types will also become more common, first hybrid vehicles which combine electric motors with gasoline or diesel engines, and ultimately membrane fuel cell vehicles. Large scale production of fuel cell vehicles will not begin until after 2007. These vehicles hold the potential to overcome many of the drawbacks which have inhibited EV sales to this point, primarily the limited range (usually less than 100 miles) between charges".

Comment.   Freedonia is also making assumptions. One assumption is that fuel cell vehicles will be equipped with membrane fuel cells.  Membrane fuel cells (also called Proton Exchange Membrane or PEM fuel cells) face many technical and cost problems which have not been solved. This is why Freedonia's further assumption is that large scale fuel cell production will not begin until after 2007 (when these problems, hopefully, will have been solved). The Apollo™ Fuel Cell is an uncomplicated, reliable and low cost product. It can be in limited production in 2003 and mass production the following year. Should this occur, the Freedonia assumptions would have to be changed as electric vehicle sales would sky-rocket beyond the 60 percent annual increase projected.

Source:  Battery and EV Industry Review published by Business Communications Company ("BCC") as reported in Electric Vehicle Progress, June 15, 1999:

"1998 sales for the battery and battery related markets were $7.3 billion. These markets are forecast to grow to $10.8 billion by 2003, resulting in an 8% average annual growth rate. . . . .The May 1999 study predicts the highest growth rate in fuel cells, expanding its 1998 market of $355 million to $1.3 billion by 2003. (Information does not distinguish automotive from stationary applications). . . .Projections for large and advanced batteries, which include batteries for EVs and components (both OEM and after-market), show an increase from $2.5 billion in 1998 to $3.6 billion by 2003, for an 8% average annual growth rate."

Comment.  If a battery and fuel cell breakthrough became evident, the BCC projections would be radically altered.

Source:    Frost & Sullivan "World Fuel Cell Markets": ,

A recent study, "estimates that the total 1998 market for FC's was $81.7 million, but that this total is expected to reach $3.92 billion in 2008 (estimated compounded annual growth rate in that period of 39.4%)".

Forecast by Battery and EV Review (ref: RDBE-98 Business Communications Company)

Source: The Battery Man, August 1999. U.S. Industrial Battery Sales

U.S. Industrial Battery Sales by Market Segment ($ Millions)

M = Mobile                       S = Stationary